Inverse modeling of CO2 sources and sinks using satellite data: a synthetic inter-comparison of measurement techniques and their performance as a function of space and time

Currently two polar orbiting satellite instruments measure CO₂ concentrations in the Earth's atmosphere, while other missions are planned for the coming years. In the future such instruments might become powerful tools for monitoring changes in the atmospheric CO₂ abundance and to improve our quantitative understanding of the leading processes controlling this. At the moment, however, we are still in an exploratory phase where first experiences are collected and promising new space-based measurement concepts are investigated. This study assesses the potential of some of these concepts to improve CO₂ source and sink estimates obtained from inverse modelling. For this purpose the performance of existing and planned satellite instruments is quantified by synthetic simulations of their ability to reduce the uncertainty of the current source and sink estimates in comparison with the existing ground-based network of sampling sites. Our high resolution inversion of sources and sinks (at 8°x10°) allows us to investigate the variation of instrument performance in space and time and at various temporal and spatial scales. The results of our synthetic tests clearly indicate that the satellite performance increases with increasing sensitivity of the instrument to CO₂ near the Earth's surface, favoring the near infra-red technique. Thermal infrared instruments, on the contrary, reach a better global coverage, because the performance in the near infrared is reduced over the oceans owing to a low surface albedo. Near infra-red sounders can compensate for this by measuring in sun-glint, which will allow accurate measurements over the oceans, at the cost, however, of a lower measurement density. Overall, the sun-glint pointing near infrared instrument is the most promising concept of those tested. We show that the ability of satellite instruments to resolve fluxes at smaller temporal and spatial scales is also related to surface sensitivity. All the satellite instruments performed relatively well over the continents resulting mainly from the larger prior flux uncertainties over land than over the oceans. In addition, the surface networks are rather sparse over land increasing the additional benefit of satellite measurements there. Globally, challenging satellite instrument precisions are needed to compete with the current surface network (about 1ppm for weekly and 8°x10° averaged SCIAMACHY columns). Regionally, however, these requirements relax considerably, increasing to 5ppm for SCIAMACHY over tropical continents. This points not only to an interesting research area using SCIAMACHY data, but also to the fact that satellite requirements should not be quantified by only a single number. The applicability of our synthetic results to real satellite instruments is limited by rather crude representations of instrument and data retrieval related uncertainties. This should receive high priority in future work

Fluvial carbon export from a lowland Amazonian rainforest in relation to atmospheric fluxes

We constructed a whole carbon budget for a catchment in the Western Amazon Basin, combining drainage water analyses with eddy covariance measured terrestrial CO2 fluxes. As fluvial C export can represent permanent C export it must be included in assessments of whole site C balance, but is rarely done. The footprint area of the flux tower is drained by two small streams (~5-7 km2) from which we measured the dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC), dissolved organic carbon (DOC), particulate organic carbon (POC) export and CO2 efflux. The EC measurements showed the site C balance to be +0.7 ± 9.7 Mg C ha-1 yr-1 (a source to the atmosphere) and fluvial export was 0.3 ± 0.04 Mg C ha-1 yr-1. Of the total fluvial loss 34% was DIC, 37% DOC and 29% POC. The wet season was most important for fluvial C export. There was a large uncertainty associated with the EC results and with previous biomass plot studies (-0.5 ± 4.1 Mg C ha-1 yr-1), hence it cannot be concluded with certainty whether the site is C sink or source. The fluvial export corresponds to only 3-7 % of the uncertainty related to the site C balance, thus other factors need to be considered to reduce the uncertainty and refine the estimated C balance. However, stream C export is significant, especially for almost neutral sites where fluvial loss may determine the direction of the site C balance. The fate of C downstream then dictates the overall climate impact of fluvial export

Development of a variational flux inversion system (INVICAT v1.0) using the TOMCAT chemical transport model

We present a new variational inverse transport model, named INVICAT (v1.0), which is based on the global chemical transport model TOMCAT, and a new corresponding adjoint transport model, ATOMCAT. The adjoint model is constructed through manually derived discrete adjoint algorithms, and includes subroutines governing advection, convection and boundary layer mixing, all of which are linear in the TOMCAT model. We present extensive testing of the adjoint and inverse models, and also thoroughly assess the accuracy of the TOMCAT forward model's representation of atmospheric transport through comparison with observations of the atmospheric trace gas SF6. The forward model is shown to perform well in comparison with these observations, capturing the latitudinal gradient and seasonal cycle of SF6 to within acceptable tolerances. The adjoint model is shown, through numerical identity tests and novel transport reciprocity tests, to be extremely accurate in comparison with the forward model, with no error shown at the level of accuracy possible with our machines. The potential for the variational system as a tool for inverse modelling is investigated through an idealised test using simulated observations, and the system demonstrates an ability to retrieve known fluxes from a perturbed state accurately. Using basic off-line chemistry schemes, the inverse model is ready and available to perform inversions of trace gases with relatively simple chemical interactions, including CH4, CO2 and CO

Patients' satisfaction with community treatment: a pilot cross-sectional survey adopting multiple perspectives.

ACCESSIBLE SUMMARY: Patients' satisfaction is scarcely studied within the context of community treatment for adolescents. Thus, this study adopts a multiple perspective on patients' satisfaction (including service users as well as staff members). The results highlighted that all informants (patients, foster carers in foster homes and professional caregivers from community treatment teams) perceived the patients to be satisfied, with foster carers reporting the highest patient satisfaction rate. Considering the patient satisfaction rate from multiple perspectives provides complementary understandings. Clinical outcomes and, specifically, a reduction in emotional difficulties were related to patient's satisfaction, but only from the patients' perspective. ABSTRACT: Community treatment (CT) teams in Switzerland provide care to patients who are unable to use regular child and adolescent mental health services (i.e. inpatient and outpatients facilities). No study has considered patients' self-rated satisfaction alongside with staff members' perspectives on patient satisfaction. Thus, adopting a cross-sectional survey design, we collected patients' satisfaction using the Client Satisfaction Questionnaire (CSQ-8), rated by multiple informants (patients, foster carers in foster homes and professional caregivers from CT teams). Professional caregivers assessed clinical outcomes using the Health of the Nation Outcome Scale for Children and Adolescents. The results indicated that all informants were satisfied with the community treatment teams. The satisfaction scores were not correlated across informants; however, the alleviation of emotional symptoms was correlated with patients' satisfaction. This study indicated that the use of a combined approach including the views of service users and professionals gives important complementary information. Finally, in our sample, lower emotional symptoms were linked to enhanced patient satisfaction. This study demonstrated the importance of considering multiple perspectives to obtain the most accurate picture of patients' satisfaction. Second, focusing on the reduction of emotional symptoms might lead to a higher degree of patients' satisfaction

Evaluating year-to-year anomalies in tropical wetland methane emissions using satellite CH₄ observations

Natural wetlands are the largest source of methane emissions, contributing 20–40% of global emissions and dominating the inter-annual variability. Large uncertainties remain on their variability and response to climate change. This study uses atmospheric methane observations from the GOSAT satellite to evaluate methane wetland emission estimates. We assess how well simulations reproduce the observed methane inter-annual variability by evaluating the detrended seasonal cycle. The latitudinal means agree well but maximum differences in the tropics of 28.1–34.8 ppb suggest that all simulations fail to capture the extent of the tropical wetland seasonal cycle. We focus further analysis on the major natural wetlands in South America: the seasonally flooded savannah of the Pantanal (Brazil) and Llanos de Moxos (Bolivia) regions; and the riverine wetlands formed by the Paraná River (Argentina). We see large discrepancies between simulation and observation over the Pantanal and Llanos de Moxos region in 2010, 2011 and 2014 and over the Paraná River region in 2010 and 2014. We find highly consistent behaviour between the time and location of these methane anomalies and the change in wetland extent, driven by precipitation related to El Niño Southern Oscillation activity. We conclude that the inability of land surface models to increase wetland extent through overbank inundation is the primary cause of these observed discrepancies and can lead to under-estimation of methane fluxes by as much as 50% (5.3–11.8 Tg yr −1 ) of the observed emissions for the combined Pantanal and Paraná regions. As the hydrology of these regions is heavily linked to ENSO variability, being able to reproduce changes in wetland behaviour is important for successfully predicting their methane emissions

Size and frequency of natural forest disturbances and Amazon carbon balance

Forest inventory studies in the Amazon indicate a large terrestrial carbon sink. However, field plots may fail to represent forest mortality processes at landscape-scales of tropical forests. Here we characterize the frequency distribution of disturbance events in natural forests from 0.01 ha to 2,651 ha size throughout Amazonia using a novel combination of forest inventory, airborne lidar and satellite remote sensing data. We find that small-scale mortality events are responsible for aboveground biomass losses of B1.28 Pg C y 1 over the entire Amazon region. We also find that intermediate-scale disturbances account for losses of B0.01 Pg C y 1 , and that the largest-scale disturbances as a result of blow-downs only account for losses of B0.003 Pg C y 1 . Simulation of growth and mortality indicates that even when all carbon losses from intermediate and large-scale disturbances are considered, these are outweighed by the net biomass accumulation by tree growth, supporting the inference of an Amazon carbon sink

Pervasive Rise of Small-scale Deforestation in Amazonia

Understanding forest loss patterns in Amazonia, the Earth’s largest rainforest region, is critical for effective forest conservation and management. Following the most detailed analysis to date, spanning the entire Amazon and extending over a 14-year period (2001–2014), we reveal significant shifts in deforestation dynamics of Amazonian forests. Firstly, hotspots of Amazonian forest loss are moving away from the southern Brazilian Amazon to Peru and Bolivia. Secondly, while the number of new large forest clearings (>50 ha) has declined significantly over time (46%), the number of new small clearings (<1 ha) increased by 34% between 2001–2007 and 2008–2014. Thirdly, we find that small-scale low-density forest loss expanded markedly in geographical extent during 2008–2014. This shift presents an important and alarming new challenge for forest conservation, despite reductions in overall deforestation rates

Diagnostic Nodes of Patient Selection for Cytoreductive Surgery and Hyperthermic Intraperitoneal Chemotherapy Among Colorectal Cancer Patients: A Swiss National Multicenter Survey.

The management of patients with colorectal cancer (CRC) with peritoneal metastases is challenging, and the roles of cytoreductive surgery (CRS) and hyperthermic intraperitoneal chemotherapy (HIPEC) are unclear and debated among experts. The experts of the Swiss Peritoneal Cancer Group were contacted and agreed to participate in this analysis. Experts from 9 centers in Switzerland provided their decision algorithms for CRS/HIPEC for patients with or at high risk for peritoneal metastases from CRC. Their responses were converted into decision trees on the basis of objective consensus methodology. The decision trees were used as a basis to identify consensus and discrepancies. The final treatment algorithms included a total of 5 decision criteria (age, Peritoneal Cancer Index [PCI], extraperitoneal metastases, Peritoneal Surface Disease Severity Score, and various risk factors [RF]) and 2 treatment options (HIPEC, yes or no). HIPEC was never recommended for patients without peritoneal metastases in the absence of RF for peritoneal metastases. For patients with a PCI ≤15 without organ metastases, all centers recommended CRS/HIPEC. There was also a consensus not to perform CRS/HIPEC in elderly patients (80 years and older), those with a PCI &gt;20, and those with unresectable metastases. For patients with a PCI = 16 to 20, there was no consensus. Multiple decision criteria relevant to all participating centers were identified. Because patient selection for CRS/HIPEC remains difficult, uniform criteria for the term "high risk" for peritoneal metastases and systemic metastases are helpful. Future trials and guidelines should take these criteria into account